The Rules & the Plan
I am very sorry for the length I may have gone on a rant
Note: Moxey in the context means bravery or Confidence never Dean Moxey, he's terrible and will not feature.
Note two: the title was kind of a reference to the manager and a fine piece of English literature but it turns out it’s also the name of an American romance book which sounds awful… so this hasn’t started great
Plan
The plan is to take a struggling premier league team and turn them into a global force whilst aiming to hit a cumulative transfer profit of £1,000,000,000
Seeing as moneyball in vogue at the moment I will be using it as the structure to achieve the aims of this save and provide the rules by which I will be playing
Rules
1. If someone bids more than a player is worth sell.
in this context I will have a little leeway, the FM value of a player doesn’t necessarily factor in their value to the team, ability to replace and weights heavily for reputation of club and player so I will sell if the amount offered satisfies the following criteria;
A ) It is more than the player is worth
B ) The fee is greater than the cost of finding a replacement
C ) A Replacement can be found if not already in Situ
D ) The Fee offered is greater than the expected value in the near future
2. Avoid wholesale changes when taking over a club by signing and selling large numbers of players.
Well this one ruins the game for me as I rarely start a save without changing the entire team but to attempt to adhere to it I will be starting with the first window disabled and will spend at least the first half of the season assessing the dregs that are currently at the club
when you look at clubs with a high manager turnover- looking at you Sunderland each manager tries to completely overhaul the squad to try and change things, it doesn't work and it wastes money people like their own people its why Harry Redknapp signed Niko Kranjcar, Peter crouch, Defoe and half a dozen others repeatedly. It’s tempting to stick with what is familiar and what you know works but it doesn't work
3. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend
Broadly speaking... kind of... if you ignore Leicester, Newcastle, villa, Chelsea actually when you look at the wages vs. position for the premier league this year its mad many with large wage bills struggled and some of the smallest massively over achieved. Also the whole point of Money ball and why Brad Pitt played Billy Beane in a film is because whilst its generally true in the long run, approaching things differently and looking for different ways to achieve results enables you to subvert the expectations that money wins (N.B obviously the A's haven't won the world series doing this so it still worked until Claudio ruined everything)
Imma leave this bit because it kind of ruins the point of the save i.e. I will win the league by having the leagues largest wage bill frankly ruins the magic and fun
4. The Arsharvin Clause
Don’t sign players who do well at tournaments or don't sign them because they did well at a tournament? It’s a small sample which might be an anomaly and consequently not worth the premium that is added on. I never pay attention to tournaments in game so I am automatically sorted on this point huzzah!
5. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil and England
Money ball: don't let your judgment be based on superficial factors its all about impact and how well they do in the role
Soccernomics: don't sign people from countries okay to good at football
I disagree here and I reckon clubs like Porto and Shakthar do to. International players already likely to be at the worlds top clubs will be pricey signing players once they develop a reputation as a top class player in a good division again will be steep but to rule them out is silly + 60% of my transfer targets are Brazilian so there’s that...
6. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old
If they get to 30 and I haven't lost them to a large bid from somebody I’m doing something wrong. I will not set a hard cap for age but I wont be signing players for fees older than 27 and will look to sell before 30. Apparently the peak wage for a footballer is earned when they are 32 years old the point when their influence is potentially on the wane I’d rather not be in the position of paying the most money to players who provide less impact
7. Use the wisdom of crowds many hands make light work and many scouts make it easier to spot players whilst they are unknown.
I will not however use a Director of football- in principle I agree with their use. There isn't enough specialism in football + leaving long term decisions to someone with short term motivations is a recipe for disaster. I have no idea why wisdom of crowds is a concept I find they cling to the status quo have little original thought and in the long run end up wrong
8. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoid the problems with not developing properly. The Freddy Adu conundrum
anything can happen (hums Ellie Goudling) there are plenty of examples of players loosing their way turning to drink/gambling/poor life decisions/ wasting their ability in a dozen other ways. Buying proven players can limit this. There is less wiggle room in FM whilst not pre-determined for the most part a player with potential and game time in the context of the game will make it so I’d probably take this with a pinch of salt.
However potential can attract and excessive premium so youth signings will be those that can be acquired for low fee's or free transfers.
Its worth noting that Billy Beane used to avoid the high school players in the draft until they became undervalued then he actively looked to them so its a bit of a judgment call.
9. Centre forwards cost more than they should and goalkeepers are under valued, defense contributes more than attack for the money spent.
build from a solid base is my guess for this bit a good goalkeeper costs far less than a good striker ( just watch de Gea or Courtois blow this out of the water this summer) and will contribute more to the points total. I will definitely be getting rid of the goalkeeper of my planned team ASAP so I guess I fit with this. It might also be possible to get Calleri and Damiao for free's at the end of the first season so I might not need to splash out anyway
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players
2.3 million Per year is the cost of a category one academy and the costs get much higher very quickly amongst the top academies. Will we produce 2.3 million + of talent per year? if yes this is sound if not then don't bother as we are starting to see with clubs like Brentford for non-premier league teams they can't afford a good enough academy to generate good enough players to make it worth it for premier league teams then it makes sense, they have the money and the draw
11. Rules set in stone are silly
Marx might not be the foremost football theorist but his views on revolution and the need for it to be continual apply. Once upon a time everyone played 4-4-2 and had people called bob and Dave up front they liked beer and cigarettes. then 4-3-3 came along with sports science and pasta and it worked and because they where playing against 4-4-2 with men whole liked beer and cigarettes it worked right up until everyone ate pasta and played with three in midfield then it changed and everyone tried to pass the ball 1000 times per match and for a bit it was very effective and then everyone decided this passing lark was super and it lost its edge until again someone decided they'd give 4-4-2 a bash with men called Jamie who like mild racism in casinos and a chap called N'Golo who likes running everywhere and intercepting things you gain an edge by doing something different but everyone else follows quickly so to maintain your edge you need to continue changing. Because at the end of the day nothing is as comparable to modern football as the views of 19th century communists.
I nabbed this list minus comments from http://www.umaxit.com/index.php/columns/football-manager-meets-moneyball-a-new-challenge-part-1 by Alex Stuart which is based on Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski
I’m aware this may be a little dense and future posts will have more images less content and be generally shorter
Up Next the Club, the Manager and the First Moves
I am very sorry for the length I may have gone on a rant
Note: Moxey in the context means bravery or Confidence never Dean Moxey, he's terrible and will not feature.
Note two: the title was kind of a reference to the manager and a fine piece of English literature but it turns out it’s also the name of an American romance book which sounds awful… so this hasn’t started great
Plan
The plan is to take a struggling premier league team and turn them into a global force whilst aiming to hit a cumulative transfer profit of £1,000,000,000
Seeing as moneyball in vogue at the moment I will be using it as the structure to achieve the aims of this save and provide the rules by which I will be playing
Rules
1. If someone bids more than a player is worth sell.
in this context I will have a little leeway, the FM value of a player doesn’t necessarily factor in their value to the team, ability to replace and weights heavily for reputation of club and player so I will sell if the amount offered satisfies the following criteria;
A ) It is more than the player is worth
B ) The fee is greater than the cost of finding a replacement
C ) A Replacement can be found if not already in Situ
D ) The Fee offered is greater than the expected value in the near future
2. Avoid wholesale changes when taking over a club by signing and selling large numbers of players.
Well this one ruins the game for me as I rarely start a save without changing the entire team but to attempt to adhere to it I will be starting with the first window disabled and will spend at least the first half of the season assessing the dregs that are currently at the club
when you look at clubs with a high manager turnover- looking at you Sunderland each manager tries to completely overhaul the squad to try and change things, it doesn't work and it wastes money people like their own people its why Harry Redknapp signed Niko Kranjcar, Peter crouch, Defoe and half a dozen others repeatedly. It’s tempting to stick with what is familiar and what you know works but it doesn't work
3. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend
Broadly speaking... kind of... if you ignore Leicester, Newcastle, villa, Chelsea actually when you look at the wages vs. position for the premier league this year its mad many with large wage bills struggled and some of the smallest massively over achieved. Also the whole point of Money ball and why Brad Pitt played Billy Beane in a film is because whilst its generally true in the long run, approaching things differently and looking for different ways to achieve results enables you to subvert the expectations that money wins (N.B obviously the A's haven't won the world series doing this so it still worked until Claudio ruined everything)
Imma leave this bit because it kind of ruins the point of the save i.e. I will win the league by having the leagues largest wage bill frankly ruins the magic and fun
4. The Arsharvin Clause
Don’t sign players who do well at tournaments or don't sign them because they did well at a tournament? It’s a small sample which might be an anomaly and consequently not worth the premium that is added on. I never pay attention to tournaments in game so I am automatically sorted on this point huzzah!
5. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil and England
Money ball: don't let your judgment be based on superficial factors its all about impact and how well they do in the role
Soccernomics: don't sign people from countries okay to good at football
I disagree here and I reckon clubs like Porto and Shakthar do to. International players already likely to be at the worlds top clubs will be pricey signing players once they develop a reputation as a top class player in a good division again will be steep but to rule them out is silly + 60% of my transfer targets are Brazilian so there’s that...
6. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old
If they get to 30 and I haven't lost them to a large bid from somebody I’m doing something wrong. I will not set a hard cap for age but I wont be signing players for fees older than 27 and will look to sell before 30. Apparently the peak wage for a footballer is earned when they are 32 years old the point when their influence is potentially on the wane I’d rather not be in the position of paying the most money to players who provide less impact
7. Use the wisdom of crowds many hands make light work and many scouts make it easier to spot players whilst they are unknown.
I will not however use a Director of football- in principle I agree with their use. There isn't enough specialism in football + leaving long term decisions to someone with short term motivations is a recipe for disaster. I have no idea why wisdom of crowds is a concept I find they cling to the status quo have little original thought and in the long run end up wrong
8. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoid the problems with not developing properly. The Freddy Adu conundrum
anything can happen (hums Ellie Goudling) there are plenty of examples of players loosing their way turning to drink/gambling/poor life decisions/ wasting their ability in a dozen other ways. Buying proven players can limit this. There is less wiggle room in FM whilst not pre-determined for the most part a player with potential and game time in the context of the game will make it so I’d probably take this with a pinch of salt.
However potential can attract and excessive premium so youth signings will be those that can be acquired for low fee's or free transfers.
Its worth noting that Billy Beane used to avoid the high school players in the draft until they became undervalued then he actively looked to them so its a bit of a judgment call.
9. Centre forwards cost more than they should and goalkeepers are under valued, defense contributes more than attack for the money spent.
build from a solid base is my guess for this bit a good goalkeeper costs far less than a good striker ( just watch de Gea or Courtois blow this out of the water this summer) and will contribute more to the points total. I will definitely be getting rid of the goalkeeper of my planned team ASAP so I guess I fit with this. It might also be possible to get Calleri and Damiao for free's at the end of the first season so I might not need to splash out anyway
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players
2.3 million Per year is the cost of a category one academy and the costs get much higher very quickly amongst the top academies. Will we produce 2.3 million + of talent per year? if yes this is sound if not then don't bother as we are starting to see with clubs like Brentford for non-premier league teams they can't afford a good enough academy to generate good enough players to make it worth it for premier league teams then it makes sense, they have the money and the draw
11. Rules set in stone are silly
Marx might not be the foremost football theorist but his views on revolution and the need for it to be continual apply. Once upon a time everyone played 4-4-2 and had people called bob and Dave up front they liked beer and cigarettes. then 4-3-3 came along with sports science and pasta and it worked and because they where playing against 4-4-2 with men whole liked beer and cigarettes it worked right up until everyone ate pasta and played with three in midfield then it changed and everyone tried to pass the ball 1000 times per match and for a bit it was very effective and then everyone decided this passing lark was super and it lost its edge until again someone decided they'd give 4-4-2 a bash with men called Jamie who like mild racism in casinos and a chap called N'Golo who likes running everywhere and intercepting things you gain an edge by doing something different but everyone else follows quickly so to maintain your edge you need to continue changing. Because at the end of the day nothing is as comparable to modern football as the views of 19th century communists.
I nabbed this list minus comments from http://www.umaxit.com/index.php/columns/football-manager-meets-moneyball-a-new-challenge-part-1 by Alex Stuart which is based on Soccernomics by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski
I’m aware this may be a little dense and future posts will have more images less content and be generally shorter
Up Next the Club, the Manager and the First Moves
