FM26 World Cup 2026 Prediction: Live Simulation

Can FM26 Predict the 2026 World Cup? We Simulated It 10 Times (And We're Not Stopping)

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Every World Cup, the same question does the rounds: can Football Manager call the winner before a ball is kicked?

FM has previous here - the game famously had Spain down as 2010 world champions before a certain octopus made headlines.

So with the brand-new FM26 database (26.3.2 update, final 26-man squads locked in), we've been running the 2026 World Cup through the engine over and over to see who the game thinks lifts the trophy in New Jersey on 19 July.

This is a living experiment. We're starting with 10 full simulations and adding more every day, building towards 100 by the knockout rounds. Bookmark this page - the sample only gets bigger, and the picture is already fascinating.

One caveat up front, because it matters: the squads are frozen as of 1 June, FM rates current ability rather than tournament form, and the game can't know about late injuries or who turns up hot.

This isn't a crystal ball. It's a window into how FM26 values these 48 teams - and that's a different, and genuinely interesting, lens.

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FM26 Backs England

After 10 simulations, one team stands clearly above the rest. England won the World Cup four times in ten and reached the final in five - comfortably the most of any nation. Whatever FM26 sees in this England squad, it likes it a lot.


World Cup wins (10 simulations)

Five different winners in ten attempts tells you how open FM26 sees this tournament - but no one else comes close to England's four titles, and they reached the most finals too, making them the clear data favourite at this early stage.

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FM26 vs The Supercomputers

Here's where it gets spicy. The big data models flatly disagree with FM26:

Model	Predicted winner	England's ranking
FM26 (us, 10 sims)	England	1st
Opta supercomputer	Spain (16.1%)	3rd (11.2%)
EA Sports FC 26	Spain	-

Both Opta (which ran 10,000 sims) and EA Sports - who've correctly called the last four World Cup winners - land on Spain.

FM26, so far, doesn't even have Spain among its most frequent winners; in our runs La Roja have a habit of going out early (a second-round exit to Algeria in one sim).

The supercomputers say Spain. FM says England. By 19 July we'll know which engine read it right.

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The Cinderella Story: Switzerland

If one team has stolen the show, it's Switzerland - two world titles in ten simulations, the joint-second most of anyone.

In one run they beat Brazil, Colombia and France on the way to the trophy, with goalkeeper Gregor Kobel named the tournament's best player.

The supercomputers give the Swiss barely a 1-3% chance. FM26 clearly didn't get the memo.

Switzerland aren't the only surprise package, either.

Japan, Colombia and Egypt all reached a final at least once, and New Zealand snuck into a Round of 16. If you like a dark horse, FM26 is your friend.

Belgium are the opposite story: not an underdog at all, but a heavyweight that keeps falling at the last hurdle - four finals, only one title, the "nearly men" of our sims.

Meanwhile the game is decidedly unconvinced by France: zero titles, and three group/second-round exits - twice dumped out by Scotland - despite all that talent.

When France click, Kylian Mbappé drags them to a final almost single-handed; when they don't, they're gone early.

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One Wonderkid to Rule Them All

If FM26 is obsessed with anyone, it's Lamine Yamal. Spain's teenager was named the tournament's Best Young Player in nine of our ten simulations - an almost total monopoly, and a striking endorsement of where the game ranks his ceiling.

Norway's Antonio Nusa grabbed the one that got away.


Up front, the Golden Boot was a duel: Erling Haaland top-scored in four sims (including a 10-goal haul) and Mbappé in three - yet neither could reliably drag his nation deep, the classic "brilliant individual, no team to match" story.

The Golden Ball (best player) was wildly spread: nine different winners across ten sims, from Mohamed Salah and Kevin De Bruyne to Scott McTominay and even a goalkeeper in Kobel. The one repeat? De Bruyne, twice - FM26's individual king.

One for the romantics: in the simulation where England beat France, Cristiano Ronaldo still forced his way into the Tournament Dream Team. The last dance isn't over yet.

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Where This Goes Next

This is simulation batch one. We'll add ten more every day and update this page - the win table, the charts, the story - as the sample grows towards 100.

Will England hold? Will Spain climb to match the supercomputers? Will Switzerland's fairytale survive a bigger sample? Check back daily and find out.

Think you can do better than the machines? Pit yourself against the community in our official FM Scout leagues on the FIFA Play Zone.

• Fantasy (start here) - code IG9PX2HQ
• Bracket Challenge - code 408EB176
• Match Predictor - code WU9IJF4Z
• Chip Challenge - code F69DD46B

Methodology: each simulation is a full holiday of the FIFA World Cup on the FM26 26.3.2 database with the assistant handling all 48 nations and no user intervention, recorded from the official post-tournament award screens.