Can FM26 Predict the 2026 World Cup?
Three forecasting models, three different favourites - and Football Manager had its own idea entirely. We ran the whole tournament 50 times to find out who's right.
Every World Cup, the same question does the rounds: can Football Manager call the winner before a ball is kicked?
FM has previous here - the game famously had Spain down as 2010 world champions before a certain octopus made headlines.
So with the brand-new FM26 database (26.3.2 update, final 26-man squads locked in), we ran the 2026 World Cup through the engine 50 times to see who the game thinks lifts the trophy in New Jersey on 19 July. With the tournament itself now in its final week, this is where our experiment ends - so here's the full verdict.
One caveat up front, because it matters: the squads are frozen as of 1 June, FM rates current ability rather than tournament form, and the game can't know about late injuries or who turns up hot. This isn't a crystal ball. It's a window into how FM26 values these 48 teams - and after 50 runs, that picture is about as clear as it's going to get.
FM26's Verdict: France, Comfortably
After 50 simulations, there's no ambiguity left. France won the World Cup 18 times - a 36% win rate - and reached the final in 23 of 50 attempts, nearly half the time. Nobody else comes close.
World Cup wins (50 simulations)
England are the clear second favourite with 13 titles (26%) and 20 final appearances - meaning between them, France and England won 31 of our 50 simulated World Cups and made the final in 43. Everyone else is fighting over the scraps: Switzerland, Belgium, Brazil and Spain all sit on 3 titles apiece, with Netherlands and Portugal on 2, and USA, Ivory Coast and Argentina each producing a single shock champion. Eleven different nations won at least once - proof the tournament is wide open even with two heavyweights dominating the top line.
FM26 vs The Supercomputers
Here's where it gets properly interesting, because the big data models never landed anywhere near FM26's conclusion:| Model | Top pick | England's ranking | France's ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM26 (us, 50 sims) | France (36%) | 2nd (26%) | 1st |
| Opta (10,000 sims) | Spain (16.1%) | 3rd (11.2%) | 2nd (13%) |
| Nate Silver (PELE, 100k sims) | Spain | tied 2nd | tied 2nd |
Both major supercomputer models make Spain favourites, with Opta at 16.1% and Silver's PELE model in broad agreement. FM26 could not disagree more: Spain didn't win a single one of our first 25 simulations, going through long stretches as a genuine underachiever - group-stage and second-round exits included - before suddenly clicking and winning 3 of the last 25. Even so, a 6% win rate for Spain in FM26's world is a fraction of what the real-world models expect. Whatever the match engine sees in the current Spain squad, it isn't what Opta or Silver see.
The Cinderella Stories: Switzerland, Belgium, Ivory Coast, Argentina
If you like an upset, FM26 delivered plenty. Switzerland were this experiment's most consistent giant-killers - 3 titles and 7 final appearances from a side the supercomputers rate a 1-3% shot at best. Belgium matched them for titles (3) and out-reached them for finals (6), converting what looked early on like classic "nearly men" energy into genuine silverware.Further down the shock scale: Ivory Coast won it once, seemingly out of nowhere, and Argentina - despite being a fancied side in real life - only broke through for FM26 in simulation 49, their solitary title of the entire run. Colombia never got over the line at all despite reaching four finals, the tournament's great nearly-team, while Norway, powered by a rampaging Erling Haaland, made two finals without ever winning one.
The co-hosts had a story of their own. USA produced the outright shock of the experiment, winning it as hosts in simulation 21 and reaching three finals in total, while Canada quietly became the most reliable co-host performer of all - racking up multiple semi-final and quarter-final runs as the tournament wore on. Mexico's best moment came at the other end of the bracket, with a Round of 16 or 2nd-round finish being closer to their ceiling across the 50 runs.
One Wonderkid to Rule Them All
If FM26 is obsessed with anyone, it's Lamine Yamal. Spain's teenager was named the tournament's Best Young Player in 34 of our 50 simulations - a 68% hit rate that dwarfs every other candidate. Antonio Nusa and Johan Manzambi were the closest challengers with 4 apiece, with Yan Diomandé, Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız picking up 2 each, and Désiré Doué and Ghana's Caleb Yirenkyi grabbing one apiece.See where Yamal and every other young star ranks in our FM26 Wonderkids list - the most comprehensive one anywhere.
Up front, the Golden Boot came down to a straight Haaland-Mbappé duel across the full sample: Erling Haaland topped the scoring charts in 15 simulations (with hauls as high as 12 goals) to Kylian Mbappé's 13, with Lautaro Martínez a distant third on 5. The Golden Ball for best player told a similar story at the top - Mbappé won it outright 12 times, more than double anyone else - but the tail was wildly varied, with Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah and even a goalkeeper all picking up the odd nomination.
The Final Word
Fifty simulations in, the headline hasn't moved from where it stood after ten: FM26 backs France, then England, and treats everyone else - including the supercomputers' actual favourite, Spain - as a longer shot than the real-world models suggest. What did change was the texture underneath: France's early struggles turned into total dominance, Spain's early irrelevance turned into a late surge that still fell well short of expectations, and the co-hosts turned in one genuine shock (USA) and one quietly excellent overall campaign (Canada).Whether the match engine or the supercomputers have it right, we'll find out on 19 July.
Think you can do better than the machines? Pit yourself against the community in our official FM Scout leagues on the FIFA Play Zone.
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Simulations run: 50 (final) · Last updated: 16 July
Methodology: each simulation is a full holiday of the FIFA World Cup on the FM26 26.3.2 database with the assistant handling all 48 nations and no user intervention, recorded from the official post-tournament award screens.
Discussion: Can FM26 Predict the 2026 World Cup?
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