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Still waiting for Genie Scout.. Try Scoutmeister

Thread about Scoutmeister
Started on 10 December 2010 by Dunc
Latest Reply on 7 January 2011 by Stam
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# Genie : Of course it depends on managing style and random. That's why it makes estimation "only" with 85% accuracy. But this value means that it will assess correctly 17 of 20 players.

And the main advantage of statistical model is that it's possible to assess its accuracy.

@Meister
I think he answered your question with this part. With tutoring being one of the 'managing style factors' (as of course one cannot predict if or with whom a manager will tutor his player). Furthermore I am not sure, but I expect that he has checked every attribute that might affect the players development to see if there is any significant influence on if the player will reach his PA or not.

One concern I do share with you is the usefulness. I usually tend to improve my training facilities and coaches as soon as my funds and the board allow me to. Therefore my young players nearly always reach their PA.. But, of course, I can imagine situations in which one is simply incapable of having a world class training system. And in those situations it would be very useful to see if your new signing will actually reach his PA.

@Genie
I have to say that I am quite impressed with the maths and statistics behind Genie Scout :) I am a first years econometrician student and I haven't had any statistical subjects yet, but I am anxious to use the model in FM.

A question I wanted to ask you for some time is how you manage to predict the 'future attributes' of players (on which the potential rating seems to be based) and what the accuracy of this prediction is. Also, it usually seems like when a player joins my club, his potential rating increases over time (with over 5 percent point with one player). Is this because I use a different training schedule?
If it depends on those factors, then the accuracy percent should be lower. Because training and injuries are rather major in my opinion. (Well, injuries not that much)
# mizie : Yes you're right. But the GS10 also predicts the PD maximum when you tick the box.

It takes into consideration age and position only in this case. While model analyzes also CA and PA, ambition, professionalism, training facilities of the club you manage etc. It's more accurate.
# Genie : It takes into consideration age and position only in this case. While model analyzes also CA and PA, ambition, professionalism, training facilities of the club you manage etc. It's more accurate.

How long did it take you to develop the current model?
# Zonnegod : A question I wanted to ask you for some time is how you manage to predict the 'future attributes' of players (on which the potential rating seems to be based) and what the accuracy of this prediction is. Also, it usually seems like when a player joins my club, his potential rating increases over time (with over 5 percent point with one player). Is this because I use a different training schedule?

The most of the attributes are linked to CA with different weights. The scout just linearly recalculates these attributes assuming that CA = PA (or max possible value).
The algorithm doesn't take into account training schedule, but rating increasing could be caused by little progress after joining your club. I didn't investigated this question in detail.
# Meister : How long did it take you to develop the current model?

It wasn't my first model, so not so long =) About 2 weekends. Much more time took to collect the data, 35 years on holiday in FM =)
@Eugene: Great to see you write in the forums mate :)
yeah,nice seeing you here Eugene.

- ya i mnogi druziya zdem vashu pragramu Eugene ;)
# Genie : The most of the attributes are linked to CA with different weights. The scout just linearly recalculates these attributes assuming that CA = PA (or max possible value).
The algorithm doesn't take into account training schedule, but rating increasing could be caused by little progress after joining your club. I didn't investigated this question in detail.

Ah yes, that's what I meant; that, because of the different training, the player progresses in other stats than 'expected' by the algorithm. It might be interesting, though probably time consuming, to use the player's current schedule (or the standard attack, midfield etc. schedule or maybe even a customisable schedule) to more accurately predict the player's future attributes. But maybe that is a bit too ambitious :P
All this talk about predicting future attributes is making me nervous, since I lack the knowledge for that. :(
Meister,just do your best mate.
Eugene - as a couple of others have already said, it's great to see you on the forums and am now following you on Twitter.

Meister - nice to hear another utility author on the scene!

Am very much looking forward to trying out both Genie Scout 2011 and Scoutmeister - my Christmas won't quite be complete until I have them!!

Happy New Year to you both.
I have one suggestion for Genie and Scoutmeister. It would be possible to edit players data(atributes, CA/PA) directly from the official database archive and not only of saved games, to have your changes forever?I know there is a official editor for this thing but it's very uncomfortable to edit. I think Genie interface is more simple to edit players because you have all the atributes in the same screen when you click in one player. You lose a lot of time editing player skills with official editor. I think it could be one of the additions for premium version of Genie or for future versions of Scoutmeister. What do you think? Ans as a experience users of FM, you could explain the influence of each atribute in the CA depending on the position, to help the community to do a better database
I'm fairly positive that the pre-game database files have a different format when compared against the save game data. Something like this could be possible to be integrated or developed into a separate application, however it would be time-consuming in it's own right.
Maybe it's time to get down to business.?
And not to discuss the quality mediocre logos ....
Where the scout? That's the only reason you want to humanity ...

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Stam
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